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| A crack British section assaults a nearby cake shop |
Close combat is a "desperate, violent struggle", just how desperate and violent some analysis will bear out.
In my experience the vicious charge in to close combat usually results in the attacking squad getting their butts handed to them, especially when the defender is in a house or other hard cover. So just what can you do to improve your chances of success, what statistically might work?
Let's find out. I have taken the opportunity to run the numbers and chances of success of close combat and the factors that might improve the odds.
In this example, I have taken a standard British section of a Junior Leader, 3-man Bren Team, 6 riflemen attacking a regular German section of a Junior Leader, 4-man LMG Team, 5 riflemen. The plucky British are moving a visible 2d6 to get within 4" and initiate close combat.
To add some flavour, let us imagine this is the Walmington-on-Sea Home Guard led by the rotund Cpt. Mainwaring attacking a standard platoon of dastardly Jerries delivered by U-Boat!
Just how can Captain Mainwaring succeed?
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| "Hello Walmington-on-Sea Analytics Department?" |
Base Combat Dice Calculations
British Base: 9 dice (figures) + 2 dice (Leader orders) + 1 die (Sten SMG) = 12 Dice total.
German Base: 9 dice (figures) + 2 dice (Leader orders) + 1 die (Machine Pistol) + 3 dice (LMG in Arc of Fire) + 2 dice (2D6 fully visible movement) = 17 Dice total.
Neither side is deemed to be Aggressive, Stubborn or Green.
On the face of it the two Sections are pretty balanced but let us add in some defensive terrain and other factors and see how radically this changes the chance of success.
Tactical Variables & Success Probabilities
Statistically, each Combat Die has a 33% chance of causing a hit (of a 5 or 6).
So let's start with the various chances when assaulting different levels of cover. The following statistical percentages represent the probability of the British Attacker winning the first round (scoring more hits than the German Defender).
Hard Cover (2% Success - "We're doomed, doomed I tell ya!")
The Germans are ensconced in a building. When attacking Hard Cover, the British dice pool is halved (12 becomes 6). Statistically, it is nearly impossible for 6 dice to out-roll 17 dice when both need 5s or 6s to hit.
Statistical Expectancy: British expect 2.0 hits vs. Germans' 5.6 hits
The British are more likely to be "Defeated by Four" or more, which results in a total surrender or being wiped out. Not a smart move there Cpt. Mainwaring!
Light Cover (6% Success - "You stupid boy")
The Germans are hiding behind a hedge. When attacking Light Cover, the British dice pool is reduced by a third (12 becomes 8). Statistically, it improves the odds slightly but this is still unlikely to result in a British successful assault
Statistical Expectancy: British expect 2.6 hits vs. Germans' 5.6 hits
The British are most likely to be "Defeated by Three," which adds 2 Shock and forces a 12” retreat facing away from the enemy.
In the Open (18% Success - "The Vicars not going to like this")
Assaulting in the Open means it is a straight British 12 dice versus 17 German dice.
Statistical Expectancy: British expect 4.0 hits vs. Germans' 5.6 hits
While the odds are better, the German LMG bonus and the +2 dice for the British movement being visible still give the Germans a 3:2 advantage. This is likely to result in a "Draw" or a "Defeated by One" for the British.
So cover is a key factor in the chances of Cpt. Mainwaring being successful here, so what other factors can he skilfully deploy to increase his odds.
In these examples it is assumed the Germans are still in hard cover as this is the worst case scenario.
Hard Cover, Germans have 6 Shock (8% Success - "Do you think that's wise Sir?")
Shock reduces the German pool by 1 die per 2 points (for Regulars), so narrowing the gap to 14 German dice versus 6 British. Narrowing yes, but still not enough when in hard cover.
Statistical Expectancy: British expect 2.0 hits vs. Germans' 4.6 hits
Hard Cover, Germans are Pinned (38% Success - "My sister Dolly's upside down cake")
A German Section with 11 Shock becomes Pinned. Starting with 17 dice, subtract 5 dice for 11 Shock (leaving 12), then halve the remainder for being Pinned, resulting in 6 dice.
As a result, even with the British halved for the German's Hard Cover (6 dice). This is likely to result in a "Draw".
Statistical Expectancy: British expect 2.0 hits vs. Germans' 2.0 hits
The British have a 38% of winning, 24% of a draw and fighting again.
Cpt. Mainwaring has effectively "suppressed the position" enough to make the assault viable.
Hard Cover and Rear Attack Advantage (72% Success "Don't Panic!")
In this example the German's have no shock at all. Manoeuvring to the rear is the most powerful tool in the British arsenal, so if Cpt. Mainwaring can lead the lads around the back of the Germans he can probably win.
Manoeuvring to the rear provides two massive benefits: the attacker does not halve their dice for the enemy's cover, and the defender's pool is halved for the first round. This gives the British 12 dice versus 8 for the Germans'.
Statistical Expectancy: British expect 4.0 hits vs. Germans' 2.6 hits
Hard Cover, Pinned and Rear Attack Advantage (100% Success "They don't like it up 'em!")
This is the perfect attack carried out by Cpt. Mainwaring with no need to roll any dice, let see how that is worked out.
If the Germans have 11 Shock and are considered Pinned and then hit from the rear, their pool of 17 dice (after Shock reduction to 12) is halved twice (12 → 6 → 3).
Statistical Expectancy: British expect 4.0 hits vs. Germans' 1.0 hit
Because the British have 12 dice and these are four times the German 3 dice, the Overwhelming Numbers rule applies. The Germans surrender or break immediately without any dice being rolled and the Walmington-on-Sea Home Guard are victorious! Cups of tea and promotions all round!
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| After a successful close assault, time for a small celebratory drink! |
How to win at Close Combat
To emulate the tactical genius of Cpt. Mainwaring you need to do the following to have a greater than 50% chance of success in all your close combat dealings.
A commander must ensure at least one of the following is in effect before launching the assault:
- The enemy has as much Shock as possible (reducing their dice and potentially Pinning them)
- The enemy is Pinned.
- The assault is a hit in the rear, negating cover and halving enemy dice further.
I hope you enjoyed this nerdy deep dive in to the perils of getting up close with the enemy!